Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 218.374927 266.844820 327.410197 410.127641 522.552339 6.737256e+02 8.991134e+02
2025-05-18 161.506097 215.741700 292.463038 413.689082 610.285805 9.369315e+02 1.573380e+03
2025-05-25 128.445331 181.695057 263.463045 406.541755 671.389365 1.194159e+03 2.494722e+03
2025-06-01 106.417074 156.840682 239.054125 394.529557 714.501286 1.446756e+03 3.746836e+03
2025-06-08 90.738493 138.036876 218.866176 381.634947 747.947643 1.705031e+03 5.493434e+03
2025-06-15 85.647654 135.335723 225.249916 421.186039 917.088986 2.478036e+03 1.142506e+04
2025-06-22 77.491592 125.674515 216.402070 425.609293 1003.732492 3.117395e+03 2.026596e+04
2025-06-29 71.829910 119.478028 212.781326 440.566274 1130.822936 4.116340e+03 4.261065e+04
2025-07-06 65.413203 110.833637 202.381396 435.713000 1195.577521 4.976707e+03 8.294653e+04
2025-07-13 63.524439 110.591460 209.612985 479.059604 1462.361260 7.683533e+03 3.916861e+05
2025-07-20 61.280515 109.257242 214.117830 517.055706 1750.186001 1.182645e+04 5.082830e+06
2025-07-27 58.620011 106.651473 215.130889 545.493955 2032.618949 1.783614e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 55.431932 102.696814 212.658879 564.278632 2308.447222 2.693207e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 51.965773 97.702665 206.725611 569.833977 2529.268331 3.900726e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 48.243315 91.682743 197.092200 558.992488 2642.712304 5.177894e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 44.678407 85.624059 186.385614 540.794528 2692.259031 6.535038e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 41.473605 80.056139 176.155040 521.339502 2717.541148 8.110733e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 41.202405 81.265036 184.752596 581.286966 3514.088737 2.337261e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 39.269359 78.300056 181.011690 588.040780 3856.889444 4.517754e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 37.931690 76.629046 180.778397 610.950327 4449.700998 1.340987e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 35.936955 73.137717 174.545624 603.504483 4679.994049 3.010025e+06 NaN
2025-10-05 35.782900 74.220409 182.522459 670.409941 6190.655582 4.418505e+08 NaN
2025-10-12 35.341130 74.519021 188.146739 729.783916 7980.589824 NaN NaN